Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund, 31 October 2026: Der Klassiker Preview

Form and table going into October

Vincent Kompany's Bayern are the reigning champions and cup holders. They have scored 14 league goals in four games and conceded two. Dortmund have scored fewer, nine, but have the same number against and a perfect points return.

The two records read differently once you look inside them. Bayern's attack does its damage at home: 5–1 against Stuttgart on the opening night and 7–0 against Union Berlin on 18 September. Away from Munich they have been tighter, a goalless draw in Gelsenkirchen and a 2–1 at Elversberg. Dortmund's wins have been narrower. Their four league wins came by margins of two, one, three and one goal, the trip to Hoffenheim finished 3–2, and Stuttgart were beaten by a single goal. Serhou Guirassy scored twice in the Champions League win over Villarreal on 8 September, which matters for a side whose league scoring is spread thin.

Before Der Klassiker, Bayern go to Augsburg on 10 October and Dortmund host Werder Bremen the night before. Both clubs also have Champions League fixtures in the weeks between.

The last five meetings

Bayern won three of the five and drew the other two. Every one of the five was close: nobody won by more than a goal. Dortmund's most recent win in the fixture was 2–0 in Munich on 30 March 2024, and their last two trips south have brought a draw and a defeat.

For goal markets the table is more useful than the results. Both teams scored in all five games, and four of the five went over 2.5 goals, 17 goals in total. The October 2025 meeting is a fair model of the pattern: Harry Kane headed Bayern in front from a Joshua Kimmich corner, Michael Olise made it two, and Julian Brandt pulled one back late. In February Kimmich's late winner settled a 3–2 in Dortmund. In August the Supercup went 2–1, Olise scoring and assisting before Dortmund replied in the second half.

Squad news reported so far

All of this was reported between 25 September and 6 October. Players get hurt in three more league rounds and the European games in between, so read it as a starting point.

Bayern Munich. Sky Germany reported on 25 September that Jamal Musiala had torn a muscle fibre in the warm-up before Germany's match against the Netherlands, with an expected absence of three to four weeks. That timetable puts him close to fitness for the end of October, but not certainly fit. Konrad Laimer has an adductor strain that sporting director Max Eberl described as not serious.

Borussia Dortmund. Julian Ryerson, who had started every match this season, left Norway's camp early with a rib injury picked up against Wales during the break. Kicker reported he was expected to be out for a short period only, so he should have time to recover. Guirassy is fit and scoring.

No suspensions had been announced for either club when we checked. The final pre-match press conferences will settle the line-ups, and we will add what they confirm and adjust the Bayern vs Dortmund prediction if a key player is ruled out.

How the market should read Der Klassiker

The prices in this section are our own figures for where a fair market ought to sit on 6 October. They are not quotes from any sportsbook. The odds calculator converts each of them into a percentage so you can set them against whatever your account shows.

For any Bayern vs Dortmund prediction the starting point is that Bayern should be clear favourites, even with Dortmund above them in the table. Home form, the size of the goal difference and the recent meetings all point the same way. The draw is the outcome most bettors leave out of a game like this, and two of the last five Klassiker ended level.

The goals lines are where this season and the history agree least. Bayern's league games have gone over 2.5 three times in four and Dortmund's twice, while both teams have scored in only two of Bayern's league games and one of Dortmund's. Against each other, though, these clubs have produced goals at both ends every time since late 2024. Our guides to both teams to score and to the over 2.5 goals line cover how much weight to give a head-to-head run against current form.

Our Bayern vs Dortmund prediction

This is our opinion, not a promise. The main pick is both teams to score, Yes, at an expected price of around 1.65 (our estimate).

Five meetings in a row with goals at both ends is the core of it. Bayern concede rarely, but they conceded in each of the last five Klassiker, including twice at home. Dortmund's attack is not as loud as Bayern's, yet Guirassy has form and they scored in every recent game against this opponent. A Bayern vs Dortmund prediction built on the home side keeping a clean sheet would go against everything the fixture has shown for two years.

The backup is a Bayern win at around 1.60 (our estimate). Bayern are unbeaten in the last five meetings and have won all three home games this season, scoring 17 and conceding one. The reason it sits second is the draw: two of the last five ended level, and Dortmund arrive unbeaten in the league. For our other football picks see the predictions page.

Where to watch Bayern v Dortmund

In Germany the match is shown by the Bundesliga's domestic rights holder. Outside Germany it goes out through each country's licensed Bundesliga partner, and the league's own channels publish the list of official broadcasters by territory.

A number of betting sites also stream selected games to customers who are signed in. We have picked out the sites that do this, but which matches they show, and in which countries, differs between them, so look before kick-off rather than at it.

After the match

This preview will be updated with the result after the final whistle.

The Bundesliga page follows the rest of the season round by round, and the football hub explains the markets used above. If you want somewhere to put a Bayern vs Dortmund prediction into practice, start with our shortlist of no verification betting sites.

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