Sports Predictions: Our Picks for the Events Ahead

Football predictions

The European leagues return on the weekend of 9 to 12 October after the long international window. Every league page has a full matchday of predictions; these are the picks we would put first.

• Premier League. Manchester City have won all five matches and Tottenham are bottom. Our predictions for the first round after the break, with estimated prices, are on the page.
• La Liga. Real Madrid v Villarreal: a home win with both sides scoring. Racing Santander v Valencia: Racing with the draw covered.
• Serie A. Como v Roma: Roma, with draw no bet to protect the stake against a Como side that lost for the first time last week.
• Bundesliga. Augsburg v Bayern: Bayern to win with three or more goals in the match. Leipzig v Frankfurt: over 2.5 goals, after Frankfurt's four games produced nineteen.
• Ligue 1. Monaco v Toulouse: the leaders straight, not on a handicap. Lorient v Paris FC: Paris FC with the draw refunded.
• Eredivisie. AZ lead after seven rounds; our matchday 8 picks and our view on the relegation play-off are on the page.
• MLS. Charlotte v Dallas: we lean Charlotte, with Dallas facing the long trip east.

Champions League and Europa League

On matchday 2 of the Champions League, 13 and 14 October, we like goals at both ends in Galatasaray v Barcelona and lean towards Real Madrid not losing in Rome. In the Europa League on 15 October, Benfica v Celtic is the strongest favourite of the round and our pick is Benfica to win; in Salzburg v Milan we expect both teams to score.

National teams

The November window brings matchdays 5 and 6 of the Nations League from 12 to 17 November. Our Nations League predictions take England -1.5 against Croatia at Wembley and goals at both ends in Portugal v Denmark. The international football predictions page covers the rest of the window, including Spain v England in Madrid.

The biggest football matches have previews of their own: Liverpool v Manchester City, Atlético v Manchester United, Manchester City v PSG, Roma v Real Madrid, the Clásico, the Milan derby and Der Klassiker.

NBA, NHL and MLB predictions

• NBA opens on 20 October. The champions are not the favourites and LeBron James has moved to Philadelphia; our opening-week predictions and futures views are on the page.
• NHL. Vegas at Seattle: a lower-scoring game than the early totals suggest. Colorado at Winnipeg: the Avalanche, but at nothing shorter than our estimate.
• MLB postseason. Our pick for the 2026 World Series, which starts on 23 October, is the Brewers: closest to the LCS, with a rested bullpen and the NL Cy Young frontrunner in the rotation.
• NFL and the Super Bowl. Four weeks into the season the futures board has been reshuffled; our Super Bowl LXI view is on the page.

Formula 1 predictions

Seven Grand Prix weekends remain in 2026, starting in Singapore on 9 to 11 October. Our F1 predictions give a winner and podium view with an estimated fair price for each one, and the championship odds page works out when the title can be decided.

Racing, fighting and golf

The Breeders' Cup is at Keeneland on 30 and 31 October. Our horse profiles give each runner's form, breeding, age and our estimate of its chances: Forever Young, Sovereignty and Knightsbridge. For the jumps season ahead, see Cheltenham and the Grand National.

The Melbourne Cup follows on 3 November, and our Melbourne Cup and Breeders' Cup pages carry our view of each.

The big fights have their own previews: Canelo v M'billi, Fury v Joshua and UFC 335. So do the season's last tournaments: the ATP Finals, the WTA Finals, the UK Championship, the NBA Cup and the World Darts Championship.

Fighters and golfers are previewed on their own profiles, each with our view of the next event: start from UFC betting, boxing betting or golf betting. In the Big Bash, which opens on 12 December, our pick is the Scorchers to reach the top four rather than to win the title.

Esports predictions

The autumn esports season runs back to back, and each event page carries the bracket, our picks and where to watch:

• Valorant Champions in Shanghai, to 18 October.
• The League of Legends World Championship, 15 October to 14 November.
• BLAST Slam IX for Dota 2, 20 to 29 November.
• The PGL Major Singapore for CS2, from 25 November.

Player profiles add the individual angle: donk, ZywOo, Faker and Yatoro among them. The esports betting hub explains how each game is priced.

The markets our predictions use most

Our sports predictions lean on a handful of markets, chosen because their prices are the easiest to estimate fairly and the cheapest to bet.

• Match result and draw no bet. The result market carries the thinnest margin in football. When we like a side but fear the draw, draw no bet refunds the stake on a level score at a shorter price, which is why it appears in several of our football predictions above.
• Asian handicap. It removes the draw and lets a short favourite be backed at a fairer price. Our Asian handicap guide explains every line we use.
• Goals markets. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are priced straight from expected goals, which is how we estimate them. The guides to over 2.5 goals and both teams to score show the method.
• Totals and spreads in American sports. In the NBA and NHL our picks are usually on totals rather than sides, because injury reports move sides faster than they move totals.
• Outrights. Season and tournament winners carry wide margins, so we only print an outright pick when our fair price is clearly longer than the market's likely price, and we say when we would rather wait.

What we avoid matters as much. We rarely pick correct scores, first goalscorers or long accumulators: the margins on those markets are several times higher, and no amount of analysis makes up for that.

Where our sports predictions go next

The list on this page grows with the calendar. As each league round finishes, the league page moves to the next one; as a bracket is drawn, the event page adds the matches. Coming up are the NBA Cup group stage in November, the Melbourne Cup, the jumps season towards Cheltenham, and the CS2 Major at the end of November. If you follow one sport closely, the sport hub is the faster route: every hub links to its current previews and to the profiles of the players, fighters and horses in them.

How we make our predictions

1. Facts first. Every preview starts from the official table, fixture list or bracket, and lists those sources at the end of the page with the date we read them.
2. A model of the match, not a feeling. For football we start from goals scored and conceded and price the score with a Poisson model; for other sports, from form, ratings and head-to-head records.
3. A fair price. The probability becomes a price with no margin added. That is the number we print as an estimate.
4. A pick only where the price can be beaten. If the market is likely to sit shorter than our fair line, we say we would pass.

We do not claim a hit rate we cannot show. Football betting tips that promise sure wins are selling something; ours are opinions with the arithmetic on the page.

Placing a prediction without sending documents first

When you have a pick and a price, you need a site to place it. The comparison of no verification betting sites on our main page shows where an account opens with an email, and when each operator says it may ask for ID. The sports betting hub covers how each sport is settled.

3 sportsbooks, most coins accepted first

Rakebit

Our rating

Excellent

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10,000 EUR a day clause number not recorded

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15

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Anjouan Gaming Board

Rocketpot

Our rating

Excellent

When ID can be asked

US$2,500

Withdrawal limit

from 5,000 USD in instalments cl. 11.5

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13

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Wild.io

Our rating

Excellent

When ID can be asked

case by case

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US$100,000 a week cl. 9.6

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12

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Curaçao Gaming Authority

Bitcasino.ioSportsbook

US$2,500When ID can be asked

Open