Emirates NBA Cup 2026: six groups, a new final venue and how we would bet it

Who has won it so far

The Lakers took the first Cup in 2023, beating the Pacers 123–109 with LeBron James named MVP. The Bucks won in 2024, 97–81 against the Thunder, with Giannis Antetokounmpo as MVP. Last year the Knicks beat the Spurs 124–113 and Jalen Brunson was MVP. Three editions, three different winners. That is a small sample, but it fits what a format of four group games and three single knockouts should produce, and it is the first thing to remember when NBA Cup odds make one team look inevitable in October.

How NBA Cup odds work: outrights, groups and the margin rule

There are three main ways to bet the tournament. The outright market asks who lifts the trophy on 11 December. Group winner markets ask who finishes top of each group of five. Then there are the single games themselves, priced like any regular-season game but with an extra layer of motivation.

The outright. Thirty teams, one winner, a long route. The margin on a thirty-runner futures book is wide, and every team carries the risk of a bad Friday in November. Our odds calculator turns any price into an implied chance, which is the quickest way to see how much of that number is bookmaker margin.

Group winners. Five teams and four games each means the difference between first and second is often one result. Group markets are where we see the most value in NBA Cup odds, because a single head-to-head game can settle the group, and that game is scheduled on a known date.

The tie-break rule. If teams finish level, the order is head-to-head, then point differential in group games, then total points scored, then 2025–26 regular-season record, then a drawing. For the wild card race, head-to-head is dropped, so point differential comes first. Overtime does not count: a game that goes to extra time is worth a differential of zero, and only regulation points count towards points scored.

This is the rule that bends NBA Cup odds late in group play. A team that needs a 15-point win to finish above a rival will keep its starters in and keep shooting in the fourth quarter. That pushes the final margin out and can carry the total over, while bench minutes in a decided game normally do the opposite. Before you bet a spread or total on the last Cup Night, work out what each team needs. A favourite at -9 that needs to win by 12 is a different bet from one that only needs to win.

Star availability. Since 2023–24 the league's participation policy has required teams to have their stars available for national TV games and for in-season tournament games. A star is any player picked for an All-NBA or All-Star team in one of the three previous seasons. That reduces one familiar risk in November: the healthy star rested on a quiet night.

Our NBA Cup predictions, group by group

Every pick below is our view, written three weeks before the first Cup Night. The prices are our estimates of where a fair group-winner number should sit, not quotes from any sportsbook. Injuries and early-season form will move all of them.

East B is the group of the draw. The Knicks, Cavaliers, 76ers, Heat and Pacers will take points off each other, and the winner may finish 3–1 rather than 4–0. Our view is that this lifts the chance of an East B wild card, because a 3–1 runner-up from a hard group can still beat the runners-up elsewhere on record. Where it does not, the margin rule decides, and that is worth knowing before the Black Friday game between Miami and New York on 27 November.

For the outright our view is the Spurs. They reached the final last year, they host two of their group rivals on national TV, and our reading is that single-game knockouts favour a team that defends well over one that relies on depth. The Thunder are our second choice. We would avoid the holders at a short price: winning East B is the hardest task any team faces in group play.

The money players can win

Unlike most regular-season games, the Cup carries direct pay for players. In 2025 each player on the winning team received $530,933, the runner-up $212,373, a beaten semi-finalist $106,187 and a beaten quarter-finalist $53,093. The amounts rise each year in line with league income under the 2023 collective bargaining agreement, so the 2026 figures should sit a little higher; they had not been published when we wrote this.

Our view is that the money matters most in the knockout rounds, where the gap between losing a semi-final and losing the final was over $100,000 a player last year. That is one reason we would not fade a lower seed on effort alone, and why NBA Cup odds on an underdog in a quarter-final deserve a second look.

Where to watch

In the United States, Prime Video has most Cup Nights and every knockout game, including the final. NBC and ESPN share the rest of the televised group games, with ESPN taking a Thanksgiving Eve tripleheader on 25 November. Outside the US, national broadcasters carry the NBA, and the league's own League Pass covers games without a local channel.

A few betting sites also show part of the NBA schedule inside a customer account. We took that into account when choosing the sites on this page, but the games covered change from one site to another, so check the night you care about before relying on it.

Before you bet

Raptors fans have one Canadian team in the draw, in East A; our guide to betting from Canada covers payment and payout points for that market. For regular-season prices, injury report times and the championship futures board, read our NBA season guide. The rules of spreads, totals and player props are on the basketball hub, and our weekly picks across sports sit on the predictions page.

Before you take any NBA Cup odds, check where your stake will sit and how fast it comes back. If you want to compare operators on withdrawal caps and the point at which they ask for documents, our list of no verification betting sites is the place to start.

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