F1 Championship Odds: Seven Rounds Left, 84 Points to Find

How many points are left

Seven rounds remain: Singapore, the United States, Mexico City, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Singapore is the sixth and last sprint weekend of the year. A Grand Prix pays 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 to the top ten, a sprint pays 8 down to 1 for the top eight, and there has been no fastest lap point since 2025.

So one driver can add at most 183 points: seven wins at 25 and the sprint at 8. Piastri is 192 behind and is already out of the drivers' race. Everyone from Russell to Verstappen is still mathematically alive. For a team the ceiling is 43 a Grand Prix (first and second) plus 15 for a sprint one-two, which makes 316 points still on offer in the constructors' table.

The maths behind the F1 championship odds

Russell has to make up 84 points in seven rounds, about twelve a weekend. Put the other way round: if Russell won every remaining race and the sprint, Antonelli would still be champion by adding 100 points, an average of a little over fourteen a weekend. That is roughly a third or fourth place every time out. In a car that has won eleven of sixteen races, that is a low bar.

The title cannot be decided in Singapore. The most Antonelli can gain there is 33 points, which would leave him 117 clear with 150 still available. The earliest clinch is Austin on 25 October: he would need to be more than 125 points ahead of every rival after that race, which means outscoring Russell by at least 42 across Singapore and Austin.

What keeps the chasers alive is reliability, not pace. Russell's retirement at Sepang shows how quickly a power unit failure swings the gap, and in Baku Antonelli started sixteenth and could only recover to fifth. One retirement for the leader and a win for Russell is a 25-point swing; two of those and the race is close again. That is the scenario the long prices are paying for.

Our fair F1 championship odds for the 2026 drivers' title

These are our estimates, not a bookmaker price. They are what we think each driver's chance is worth with no margin added, so expect sites to offer shorter F1 championship odds than these on almost every line. Convert any price you see with the odds converter and compare.

Our view: Antonelli at anything around 1.05 is close to fair and not worth tying money up for two months. The only selection we would consider is Russell, and only at 20.0 or longer. He is in the same car, he has won three races including Baku a fortnight ago, and he is the one rival who gains directly from any Mercedes problem on Antonelli's side of the garage. Hamilton needs 106 points and three drivers between him and the lead to falter; at 80.0 we see no value either way.

F1 constructors championship odds

The constructors' title is closer to settled than the drivers' one. Ferrari need to outscore Mercedes by 152 points over seven rounds, more than 21 a weekend, against a team that has two drivers in the top two of the standings. Our estimate is Mercedes 1.02 and Ferrari around 60.0. McLaren and Red Bull Racing are alive on paper only.

The more interesting team markets this late are the minor places. Red Bull Racing are 18 points behind McLaren for third, and Verstappen's run of results in the last four races (third at Spa, second in Madrid, second in Baku, then the win at Sepang) suggests that gap can close. If you can find a “without Mercedes” or “finishing position” market, that is where the live questions are.

How F1 championship odds move between races

Outright prices move in steps, not smoothly. After a race the market reprices on the new gap, and the size of the step depends on how many rounds remain: an 18-point swing in March barely moves a price, the same swing in November can halve it. Two other things move F1 drivers championship odds between races.

• Grid penalties. Power unit components are limited for the season, and a driver who goes over takes a grid drop. Late in a year with new engines, those penalties can land on a contender at a bad circuit.
• Clinch scenarios. Once a title can be decided at the next race, prices on the leader shorten sharply in the days before, and the trailing price drifts even if nothing has happened on track.

If you hold a long-priced outright and the gap closes, you can secure part of the gain by backing the leader in the same market. Our dutching calculator does that split. Some sites also offer each-way terms on the championship, paying a fraction of the odds for a top-two or top-three finish; the each-way calculator shows what that is worth.

Race-by-race view and live markets

For the seven remaining Grands Prix, our F1 predictions for every remaining race give a pick and a fair price for each weekend. Race-winner markets are where the title is decided in practice, and in-running prices on a championship can move during a race when a contender retires. Read our guide to betting in-play before you try that.

F1 2026 odds versus the early 2027 line

The 2027 market is already open on some sites, and it is a different bet. The FIA ratified power unit changes on 24 June 2026. In 2027 the combustion engine's output rises from 400 kW to 420 kW, the split between combustion and electrical power moves to 58–42, and fuel flow increases by 5%. For 2028 the split goes to 60–40. These are refinements of the 2026 rules rather than a new formula, but they change the part of the car where Mercedes appear to have the clearest edge this year.

Most of the 2027 grid is already signed. Ferrari keep Hamilton and Leclerc, Red Bull Racing keep Verstappen and Hadjar, McLaren keep Norris and Piastri, and Williams, Aston Martin, Audi, Alpine and Cadillac have named both drivers. Three teams had seats still to confirm at the end of September.

Our view on 2027: Mercedes should open favourites, and the market will probably make Antonelli the shortest driver. We would not back anyone at single-figure odds a full winter before testing. A rule change on the power unit is exactly the kind of shift that can move a team up or down the order, and the first test sessions will move these F1 championship odds more than anything that happens in the last seven races of 2026.

Where to watch

Formula 1 races are shown by each country's rights holders, and the series runs its own streaming service in the markets where it has one; check which applies where you live. A few betting sites carry motorsport pictures inside a signed-in account as well. We noted which of our listed sites do this, but motorsport rights are bought country by country, so whether a given race appears depends on the site and on where you are.

The F1 betting hub explains the race markets, other sports are on the sports page, and the ranked list of no verification betting sites is on the home page. The F1 championship odds on this page are refreshed after each round.

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