Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Champions League Matchday 2 Preview

Form: Madrid recovering, United stalled

The Anfield defeat was the low point for Diego Simeone's side. Marcos Llorente scored first, Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister turned it round, and that came four days after a 3–0 loss in Bilbao. Since then Atlético have won three in a row, scored nine and conceded one. Read the detail before trusting the run, though. At Real Sociedad the score was 0–0 until an 81st-minute penalty, and the derby turned when Dean Huijsen was sent off early in the second half and Álex Grimaldo scored the spot kick that followed. Good results, not all of them dominant.

United's month went the other way. A 1–0 home defeat to Manchester City, a League Cup exit at home to Brighton, then a point at Craven Cottage that needed a deflected Matheus Cunha shot in the 89th minute after Lisandro Martínez had put through his own net. That is three without a win, and United have not won away from Old Trafford in three league attempts this season (0–2 at Hull, 2–2 at Everton, 1–1 at Fulham). Their place in the European top four rests on one result against Sabah.

One pattern matters for the goals markets. Every one of Atlético's last five matches produced at least three goals. Three of United's five did, and United conceded in four of them.

Head to head: no United win in four competitive meetings

In competition the record reads Atlético two wins, two draws, United none. Paulo Futre scored twice in the 3–0 at the Vicente Calderón in 1991. The 2022 tie was settled by small margins: João Félix scored in the 7th minute in Madrid, Anthony Elanga equalised in the 80th, and Renan Lodi's header at Old Trafford put Atlético through. Those four games produced eight goals in total, only one of them over 2.5.

The August friendly went to United, with Bryan Mbeumo scoring twice after Arnau Ortiz had put Atlético ahead inside five minutes. We give it little weight in an Atletico Madrid vs Man United prediction. Pre-season squads rotate freely, and nobody was playing for points.

Team news: what has been reported

Atlético Madrid. As reported on 5 October, Grimaldo was still out with a quadriceps overload. That matters for more than the team sheet: he scored the penalties that opened both the Real Sociedad and derby wins. Alexander Sørloth has returned to group training after an injury picked up in pre-season and has yet to play this season, while Ademola Lookman is back from duty with Nigeria. Atlético play at Alavés on Saturday 10 October, which will show whether Grimaldo and Sørloth are close.

Manchester United. Sports Illustrated listed eleven absentees or doubts on 30 September under head coach Michael Carrick. Amad Diallo, Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte and Tom Heaton were already out before the break. Patrick Dorgu was sent home from Denmark with a hamstring problem and Noussair Mazraoui went off for Morocco with a hip and lower-back injury. Benjamin Šeško withdrew from the Slovenia squad, Marcus Rashford and Kobbie Mainoo left the England camp, and Karl Darlow was pulled from Wales duty. Bruno Fernandes was rested by Portugal while playing through pain. With Dorgu and Mazraoui both in doubt, the left side of the defence is the obvious concern. United host Tottenham on Saturday 10 October, and that line-up is the best guide to who travels. It is also the biggest unknown in any Atletico Madrid vs Man United prediction this week.

Where to watch

UEFA sells Champions League rights market by market, so the match will be shown by whichever national broadcaster holds the rights where you live, and UEFA's own channels list those partners by country. Separately, a number of betting sites let account holders watch some fixtures through their sports pages. What is available depends on the site and on your country, and it changes from round to round, so the sites we list are worth checking against the specific match rather than assumed to carry it.

How the market should price it

These are the fair prices behind our Atletico Madrid vs Man United prediction, before any sportsbook margin. They are estimates from the editorial team, not quotes, and real prices will be a little shorter on every line.

The 1X2 line gives Atlético roughly 43%, the draw about 29% and United about 28%. Home advantage, the La Liga position and United's injuries push the home side to favourite, while the draw stays high because two of the four competitive meetings ended level and United have drawn twice on the road already. To turn any price you see into a percentage and compare it with ours, use the odds calculator.

Both teams to score is close to a coin flip. Atlético conceded in their two defeats and in the derby, and United have scored in four of their last five. If you are new to that market, our guide to both teams to score covers how it settles. The total is the market where recent form and history disagree most: Atlético's games have all gone over three goals lately, but the clubs' competitive meetings have been tight. The over 2.5 goals guide explains how the line is set.

Our Atletico Madrid vs Man United prediction

Main pick: Atlético draw no bet, around 1.65 (our estimate). Atlético are unbeaten at home in La Liga this season, with three wins and a 2–2 draw against Villarreal. United are without an away win in the league and travel with a depleted defence. We still respect the draw, which is why the stake comes back if it finishes level. A straight home win at around 2.35 is the bolder version of the same view.

Second choice: over 2.5 goals, around 2.00 (our estimate). Atlético's last five matches all reached three goals, and United have conceded in four of their last five. The risk is real: the 2022 tie produced three goals over 180 minutes, and if Grimaldo is missing Atlético lose the man who took their last two penalties. We would not combine the two picks in one bet, because a 1–1 draw refunds the first and loses the second.

Neither selection is close to certain. This is our Atletico Madrid vs Man United prediction based on what was reported by 6 October, and team news after the weekend could change it. Our other matchday calls are collected on the predictions page, and the football hub covers the other competitions. For bookmakers that let you place a bet without sending documents first, start with our list of no verification betting sites.

After the match

This preview will be updated with the result after the final whistle.

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