Hedge Bet Calculator: The Same Return Whichever Side Wins

The hedge formula

The hedge bet calculator runs on one line, with both prices in decimal odds:

hedge stake = original stake × original odds / hedge odds

The original bet returns its stake times its odds if it wins. The hedge has to return the same amount if the other side wins, so that amount is divided by the hedge price. Everything else follows:

• Return either way = original stake × original odds
• Total staked = original stake + hedge stake
• Result locked in = return either way − total staked

American odds are turned into decimal before any of this: +500 becomes 6.00 (500 divided by 100, plus one) and -200 becomes 1.50 (100 divided by 200, plus one). The odds calculator converts any price if you want to check a step by hand.

The formula also tells you when a hedge can show a profit at all. Take the implied probability of your original price and that of the hedge price. If the two add up to less than 100%, the market has moved your way since you bet and the locked-in result is positive. If they add up to more, a hedge only limits the loss.

Worked example: a $20 futures bet at +500

Before the season you put $20 on a team to win the championship at +500. It reaches the final, and the other side of that final is now priced at -200. Season-long markets of this kind are the classic hedge case in American sports, and the NFL betting hub explains how they are priced.

• Original odds: +500, or 6.00
• Hedge odds: -200, or 1.50
• Hedge stake: 20 × 6.00 / 1.50 = $80.00
• Return either way: 20 × 6.00 = $120.00
• Total staked: 20 + 80 = $100.00
• Result locked in: 120 − 100 = $20.00

Without the hedge the bet ends at +$100.00 or −$20.00. With it, +$20.00 whichever side lifts the trophy. Is that a good trade? The -200 price gives your team roughly a one-in-three chance. At exactly one in three, the unhedged bet is worth $20.00 on average (a third of $100 minus two thirds of $20), the same as the hedge. Since the -200 price carries a margin, the hedge costs a little on average; what you buy with it is the end of the swing. Our view: hedge when the $100 swing matters to you more than the small cost, and leave it when it does not.

Partial hedges

You do not have to hedge in full. A partial hedge stakes less than the equal-return amount and leaves one outcome heavier than the other. The useful reference point is the break-even hedge, the stake that wins back your original stake if the other side wins:

break-even hedge = original stake / (hedge odds − 1)

In the futures example that is 20 / 0.50 = $40.00. Here is the same bet with four hedge sizes:

The hedge bet calculator gives the equal-return stake only, so work out partial sizes by hand. If your pick wins, the net is the original profit minus the hedge stake. If the other side wins, it is the hedge stake times (hedge odds − 1), minus the original stake. Anything above the equal-return stake means you now want your own pick to lose.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay

A parlay that has landed every leg but one is the most common hedge of all. Treat the slip as a single bet: the stake is what you paid, and the original odds are the total payout divided by the stake. The parlay calculator gives that combined price if the slip does not show it.

Say a $10 four-leg parlay has three winning legs and pays $250.00 if the fourth lands. Its combined odds are 25.00, or +2400. The other side of the last leg is priced at -150, which is 1.6667 in decimal (exactly 5/3).

• Hedge stake: 10 × 25.00 / 1.6667 = $150.00
• Return either way: $250.00
• Total staked: 10 + 150 = $160.00
• Result locked in: $90.00

Check it both ways. If the last leg wins: 250 − 10 − 150 = $90.00. If it loses: the hedge returns 150 × 5/3 = $250.00, minus the $160.00 staked, again $90.00. In the hedge bet calculator, type 10 as the stake, 25.00 or +2400 as the original odds and -150 as the hedge odds.

One practical point: hedge the exact market the last leg sits in. If the leg is a spread at -3.5, take the other side at +3.5. A hedge at a different number opens a gap where both bets lose, or both win.

Hedge or cash out

Many sportsbooks offer to cash out a running bet: a fixed sum now in exchange for closing it. A cash out and a full hedge do the same job, so they compare directly. The cash out worth the same as a full hedge is the return either way minus the hedge stake. In the futures example that is 120.00 − 80.00 = $40.00, your $20 back plus the $20 locked in.

Cash-out offers usually sit below that figure, because the sportsbook adds a margin to the cash-out price on top of the margin already in its odds. The two offers below are an illustrative estimate, not prices quoted by any site:

Even when the hedge bet calculator shows the better number, the cash out has its own strengths: it settles at once and needs no further money, while the hedge ties up $80 until the final. The hedge has one big advantage: you can place it wherever the other side is priced best, which is where sites with the thinnest margins earn their keep. Work out both figures before you choose.

What the calculator does not include

• The quality of the hedge price. It uses the odds you type. A better price elsewhere means a smaller hedge stake and a larger result.
• Partial hedges. It returns the equal-return stake only; the partial sizes above are done by hand.
• Cash-out offers. It does not know what a site would pay to close your bet. Compare an offer with the return minus the hedge stake.
• Pushes, voids and dead heats. If either bet can push or settle at a reduced rate, the two no longer mirror each other.
• Markets with three outcomes. A football match can end in a draw, so covering it takes two hedge bets; this tool hedges one other side.
• Rounding and stake limits. A sportsbook may round the stake or cap it, which shifts the balance by a few cents.
• Whether to hedge. That rests on your view of the chances. The hedge bet calculator supplies the arithmetic, not the decision.

Where to place the bet is a separate question, answered on our page about best no verification betting sites.

Also on this site: Kelly calculator, Poisson calculator and all betting calculators.

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