Jake Paul: No Fight Booked Yet, and What Will Decide His Next Price

Record: two kinds of opponent, two kinds of result

Fourteen professional fights, twelve wins. These are the ones that shaped his price, newest first.

Read the record by opponent rather than by result, because that is how Jake Paul odds have always been set. Five of his seven stoppages came inside two rounds, against AnEsonGib, Nate Robinson, Ben Askren, Andre August and Ryan Bourland. Against men with a real name, the fights went long: Silva, Diaz, Tyson and Chávez Jr. all heard the final bell, and so did Tommy Fury, who won on two cards by 76–73 while the third judge had Paul ahead 75–74. Paul scored the only knockdown of that night, in the eighth round.

The Joshua fight is the outlier in the other direction. Paul spent the early rounds moving away to avoid exchanges, which kept him in it for a while. In the sixth Joshua landed a straight right and a right-left combination, and Paul was counted out at 1:31 as he reached his feet. He had been down four times. All three judges had it 50–43 for Joshua at the stoppage, and CompuBox counted 16 of 56 punches landed by Paul.

What is known about Jake Paul

The public record says less about technique than about level. Against the opponents he was expected to beat, the right hand ended things early. Against experienced boxers he has shown he can last ten rounds and win them clearly: 98–91, 98–91 and 97–92 over Diaz, and 99–91, 97–93 and 98–92 over Chávez Jr. at cruiserweight. That is a bettor's first clue. When the opponent can box, a Paul fight tends to be decided on the cards, and that should shape how you read Jake Paul odds on the method market.

Size is the second clue. He moved up to heavyweight for Tyson and stayed there for Joshua, the first opponent who was bigger, younger than Tyson and still at championship level. That night is the clearest evidence of where his ceiling sits today. His camp's own target points elsewhere: an opponent he has already shared a ring with.

The third is time. By the end of 2026 he will have been out for a year, and his first fight back follows the only knockout loss of his career. Paul said in April that a break from the sport had renewed his energy; in August, Bidarian said he would be cleared to spar in mid-September. A return to sparring is not a fight, and the first camp after a knockout is the part of the story no record table shows.

Next fight: what will set the Jake Paul odds

Until a bout is signed, any number is a guess. These are the four things that will decide where Jake Paul fight odds open when it is.

1. Who is in the other corner. Tommy Fury is the name his camp keeps returning to. Fury is 12–0 with 4 knockouts and already holds the split-decision win. Bidarian has said the obstacles are money, expectations and the economics of the deal. Paul has also spoken about Francis Ngannou, which would be a very different price.
2. Weight. At cruiserweight he looked comfortable over ten rounds. Against a heavyweight, his record so far is a decision over Tyson, a former champion long past his prime, and a knockout loss to Joshua.
3. Scheduled length. His wins over Diaz and Chávez Jr. were over ten rounds; Fury beat him over eight. Fewer rounds give the bigger puncher less time; more rounds favour the fitter man.
4. The layoff. In our view a first fight after a knockout loss deserves a discount until the camp reports look normal. Weigh-in numbers on the eve of the fight are worth checking.

If it is Tommy Fury again: chances and why

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price, for a rematch, before the weight and length are agreed: Paul 50%, a fair price of about 2.00; Fury 47%, about 2.13; the draw 3%, about 33.0. A sportsbook adds its margin on top, so quoted Jake Paul odds will be shorter than these on both sides. Our odds calculator shows how much margin a quoted pair carries.

Why we have Paul level or slightly ahead:

• The first fight was close. One point on two cards, Paul ahead on the third, and Paul with the only knockdown.
• He has improved over distance since. After that loss he won ten-round decisions over Diaz and Chávez Jr. by wide margins.
• Fury's power is limited on paper. Four knockouts in twelve wins means Paul has less to fear inside the distance than he did against Joshua.

Why it is not more:

• First fight back after a knockout. Nobody knows how he will respond to being hit cleanly again.
• Fury is unbeaten and has already solved the problem once.

Our view on method: the rematch goes the distance about two times in three, which makes the points prices for both men more interesting than the knockout lines.

How to bet on Jake Paul

Our boxing betting guide explains each market in full. For Jake Paul betting specifically:

1. Moneyline. The plain win, any method, and the line most people mean by Jake Paul odds. Check whether the draw is a third outcome or voids a two-way bet.
2. Method of victory. His record splits cleanly by opponent level. Early stoppages against novices, decisions against boxers. Price the method market on the opponent, not on his knockout total.
3. Total rounds and goes the distance. Every one of his fights against an experienced boxer that he won went the full schedule.
4. Round groups. If you expect a stoppage, bands such as rounds one to three or seven to ten carry less risk than naming a single round.

His fight with Anthony Joshua is the main reference for how he copes with a heavier puncher, and Canelo Álvarez held talks to fight Paul in early 2025 before signing with Riyadh Season instead.

Where to watch

His fights with Tyson and Joshua were shown on Netflix, but no broadcaster has been named for a fight that does not yet exist, and rights for big boxing nights differ from country to country. Some betting sites also show boxing inside the account, usually smaller cards rather than headline events, and we picked sites where that option exists. What each one carries changes from fight to fight, so check closer to the date.

If you want an account that opens without sending documents first, start with our comparison of no verification betting sites, and compare the boxing margins on our best odds betting sites page before placing a bet on the rematch, if it happens.

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