Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua: Record, Style and How We Price It

Record: the fights that shape the price

Thirty-nine professional fights, one draw, two defeats. These are the ones a bettor should know, newest first.

Of the 39 fights, 14 went to the scorecards: eleven wins, the two Usyk losses and the Wilder draw. That is a higher share than most heavyweights at his level, and it matters for every method and distance market.

What is known about Tyson Fury

He is the tallest and longest man in most of his fights, and he uses it. Wikipedia describes him as listed orthodox but regularly switching to southpaw, and in the first Usyk fight he found success with the jab while working off the back foot. From the fourth round he took over, and he appeared to hurt Usyk with uppercuts in the sixth. Usyk came back, hurt him badly in the ninth and scored a knockdown as Fury fell into the ropes. The rematch was closer to a points fight from start to finish, and CompuBox had Usyk landing 179 punches to Fury's 144.

The pattern across his career is that Fury can be put down and get up. Ngannou dropped him in the third round in 2023, Usyk in the ninth in 2024, and the third Wilder fight produced five knockdowns between the two men before Fury won it in the eleventh.

The comeback tells a quieter story. Against Makhmudov he showed no obvious ring rust after fifteen months out and won almost every round. Against Wach, a 46-year-old who had lost twelve of his previous twenty, he said he wanted rounds rather than an early finish, and he got seven of them. In June, Eddie Hearn argued that the Makhmudov win had shown weaknesses Joshua could exploit. That is a promoter's view, but it is the argument the Joshua side will bring to the market.

Tyson Fury odds against Joshua: chances and why

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: Fury 55%, a fair price of about 1.82; Joshua 42%, about 2.38; the draw 3%, about 33.0. Bookmakers add a margin on top, so quoted prices on both men should be shorter than those numbers. Our odds calculator turns any quoted price back into a percentage so the comparison is like for like.

Why we lean to Fury:

• The Usyk test. Fury took the best heavyweight of the era the full twelve rounds twice, and the first fight was a split decision. Joshua also lost twice to Usyk on points, and then lost inside five rounds to Daniel Dubois in 2024.
• Size and reach. At 6 ft 9 in with an 85-inch reach, Fury is three inches taller than Joshua and has three inches more reach.
• Activity at the right level. Twelve clear rounds against Makhmudov in April were the kind of work a long fight needs.

Why the price is not shorter:

• Joshua's power is real. Twenty-seven of his thirty wins came early, including his last two, against Jake Paul and Kristian Prenga.
• Fury goes down. Ngannou, Usyk and Wilder have all put him on the canvas. Against a puncher, one clean shot can settle a fight he is winning on the cards.
• Thirty-eight and a long career. Fury has fought only twice in the two years before Cardiff, and neither opponent was close to Joshua's level.

How to bet on Tyson Fury

Our boxing betting guide covers each market in full. For this fight the useful ones are below.

1. Moneyline. Fury or Joshua by any method. Check whether the draw is a separate outcome or whether the stake comes back on a draw.
2. Method of victory. Fury on points, Fury inside the distance, and the same pair for Joshua. Our view is that Fury's likeliest winning route is the scorecards, while Joshua's is a stoppage.
3. Total rounds. Fury fights go long, Joshua fights mostly end early. The over/under line will sit between those two histories, and that tension is where the number is decided.
4. Round groups. If you think Joshua lands early, a band such as rounds one to four costs less risk than a single round.
5. The draw. Fury already has one, against Wilder in 2018. Three judges on a close heavyweight fight can split, so when you compare Tyson Fury odds across sites, check that the draw is listed as its own outcome.

Before buying any Tyson Fury odds, watch the weigh-in. He weighed 267.9 lb for Makhmudov and 265 lb for Wach, so a big jump either way says something about the plan.

Where to watch

The announcement says the fight will stream on Netflix, which is also where Fury's April fight was shown. Rights can vary by country, so confirm in your region before fight week. Separately, some betting sites carry boxing streams inside the account, mostly undercards and smaller shows rather than headline events like this one. We picked sites where that option exists, and what each shows changes from card to card.

Fury's two conquerors and rivals have their own pages: Oleksandr Usyk and, from lighter weights, Terence Crawford. For the full comparison of sportsbooks that let you register without documents, see our list of no verification betting sites.

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