Aryna Sabalenka after losing No.1: four majors, eight hard-court Slam finals in a row and her case for Melbourne

Record

The results behind her prices, from her Wikipedia pages:

Her career win-loss through the 2026 US Open is 424–151, with 119–30 at the majors. The 2026 season stood at 46–9 at the same point.

How 2026 went. It began with a second straight Brisbane title, 6–4 6–3 over Marta Kostyuk, and a fourth consecutive Melbourne final without a set dropped on the way. She lost that final from 3–0 up in the third set. She skipped the Middle East events, then won Indian Wells, saving a match point in the final tiebreak against Rybakina, and Miami, beating Gauff. That made her the fifth woman to complete the Sunshine Double in singles, and the first player to do it in both singles and doubles.

The European months were the weakest part of her year. She withdrew from Stuttgart, lost a Madrid quarter-final to Hailey Baptiste after holding six match points, went out to Sorana Cîrstea in the third round in Rome and lost a Roland-Garros quarter-final to Diana Shnaider, the last set 6–0. On grass Pegula beat her in the Berlin semi-final and Naomi Osaka in the fourth round at Wimbledon, ending a streak of 14 straight major quarter-finals.

The summer hard courts gave mixed signals: fourth-round losses in Canada and Cincinnati, then a final in New York, her eighth hard-court major final in a row. Her first event since then went badly. As second seed in Beijing she lost in the third round to Nikola Bartůňková, 6–4 6–3.

What is known about Aryna Sabalenka

Power from the back of the court. She is an aggressive baseliner with a heavy serve and heavy groundstrokes. Wikipedia cites an average forehand speed of 129 km/h at the 2024 US Open, and in 2024 she won 62.7% of points on serve and 78.5% of her service games.

A serve that was rebuilt. It was once her problem: 166 double faults in 2020, 440 in 2022. After she hired a biomechanics coach following the 2022 Canadian Open, it turned into a strength, and her first major title came the following January.

Tiebreaks. In 2025 she won 22 of 25, an Open Era record for a woman in one season. In 2026 she won her 20th straight tiebreak at the Grand Slams, a record for any player. For set-betting and total-games markets this matters: a set that reaches 6–6 against her has tended to go her way.

Finals are her weak spot. Her record in tour finals is 24–21. She has lost three of her last four major finals, all three in deciding sets, and the record in finals against Rybakina is five to two in Rybakina's favour.

Surface split. From the career statistics page:

That is roughly 75% of matches won on hard courts, 73% on clay and 66% on grass. All three clay titles came in Madrid, in 2021, 2023 and 2025, where the conditions play quick. Grass is the one surface where she has not won a tour title.

Australian Open 2027: chances and why

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: 22%, which makes a fair price of about 4.50. We rate her as the most likely winner, narrowly ahead of Rybakina. Why:

1. Melbourne is her best Slam. A 34–7 record there, two titles and four finals in a row.
2. Hard courts are her surface. 21 of her 24 titles, all four majors, eight consecutive hard-court major finals.
3. The tiebreak record helps over seven matches. Close sets are where outsiders usually catch a favourite out, and she has won them at a record rate.
4. The finals record pulls the other way. Losing three of four major finals, two of them to Rybakina, is the main reason we stop short of a bigger number.
5. No longer No.1 may help the price. If the market follows the ranking and makes Rybakina favourite, Sabalenka could be the better-value of the two.

How to bet on Aryna Sabalenka

Tournament winner. The headline market. With a final in each of the last four years, backing her to reach the final, where sites offer it, is a narrower version of the same view.

Each way. Paid out in part on a final or semi-final place, depending on the site's terms. Run the numbers with the each-way calculator before staking.

Set betting. In early rounds she is usually a short price to win in straight sets. The value is more often in the exact score of a close match against a top-20 opponent.

Games handicap. Our handicap betting guide explains how a games line settles. Her margins in early rounds are often wide, which is when a handicap pays more than the match price.

Tiebreak in the match. Against another big server, a yes on a tiebreak is a natural fit for her style.

The two players around her in the ranking have their own profiles: Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula. The tournament guide is at Australian Open odds, and grass, her one surface without a title, is covered on our Wimbledon page. For the basics of tennis markets, start at the tennis hub.

Where to watch

Grand Slam matches go out on the national broadcasters that buy rights in each country. Tour events are shown through the WTA's own channels, and every tournament publishes scores and the order of play on its official site.

Some of the sportsbooks we review also stream a share of tennis to account holders. We picked out the ones that do, but the events and courts each one shows are not the same, so look at a site's schedule before relying on it.

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