Alexander Volkanovski Before UFC 333: Record, Style and Our Price

Record

Twenty-eight wins, four defeats, no draws. Thirteen of the wins came by knockout or stoppage, twelve on the scorecards and three by submission. The table covers his last twelve fights, which include every title bout of both reigns.

Three of the four losses came inside twelve months, between February 2023 and February 2024: two against the then lightweight champion one division up, and the knockout by Topuria that cost him the featherweight belt. He has not been stopped since. Wikipedia credits him with two age records from the comeback: oldest featherweight champion when he won in April 2025, at 36 years and 195 days, and oldest to defend that title, at 37 years and 125 days in February 2026. The same page has him level with José Aldo for the most wins in UFC featherweight title fights, eight.

What is known about Alexander Volkanovski

UFC.com lists him as a striker with ground-and-pound and names the overhand right as his signature weapon. Wikipedia describes him as a counter striker who is also a strong offensive wrestler, and that mix is the point: opponents who prepare for one half get the other.

The numbers on his UFC.com profile back the volume side of it:

• 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute, at 57% accuracy
• 1.63 takedowns per fifteen minutes
• 69% takedown defence
• seven first-round finishes across his career

Two things stand out for betting. First, his fights go long: seven of the twelve in the table went the full five rounds, so he is used to winning late, after the opponent slows. Second, the two-year run of defeats came against bigger or heavier-hitting men, and both comeback wins against Lopes were patient decisions rather than early finishes. At 38, he is winning with control and pace, not by trading.

The opponent: Movsar Evloev

Evloev is 20–0, born on 11 February 1994 in Ingushetia, and ranked No. 1 at featherweight by the UFC. He holds the Master of Sports title in Greco-Roman wrestling, and Wikipedia records his 49 takedowns as the second-highest total in the history of the division. Thirteen of his twenty wins went to the judges, four were submissions and three were knockouts.

His recent run reads like a list of the division's contenders: Lerone Murphy by majority decision in March 2026, Aljamain Sterling in December 2024, Arnold Allen in January 2024 and Diego Lopes in May 2023, all on the cards. Lopes is the common opponent; both men beat him by decision.

UFC 333: chances and why

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: Volkanovski 45%, a fair price of about 2.22; Evloev 55%, about 1.82. A sportsbook adds its margin on top, so expect both sides to be quoted shorter than this.

Why we land there:

1. The grappling exchange decides it. A 69% takedown defence is good, but Evloev's whole game is the takedown, and a wrestler who keeps trying will land some. Rounds lost on the mat are hard to win back.
2. Age is a real factor, not a narrative one. No male UFC champion from flyweight to lightweight had won a belt past 35 before him. Every defence now breaks new ground, and the market will price that.
3. The finishing gap favours the champion. Volkanovski has thirteen knockouts; Evloev has three in twenty fights. If the fight ends early, the champion is the likelier one to end it.
4. Five rounds suits both. The champion has seven five-round decisions in the table; Evloev wins on the cards as a habit. Our view is that a decision is the most likely way this ends, whoever wins.

Our view: the single most likely result is Evloev on points, but at a fair price near 2.22 the champion is close to an even proposition, and any price well above that would interest us.

How to bet on Alexander Volkanovski

The fight gives more angles than the winner market. These are the ones that match how both men fight:

• Moneyline. The plain winner. Use the odds calculator to turn any quoted price into a percentage and set it against our 45%.
• Method of victory. Volkanovski by KO/TKO, by submission or by decision. Given Evloev's record, a champion win on the cards and a champion stoppage are the two that matter.
• Goes the distance. Thirteen of Evloev's wins and the champion's last two fights all went to the judges, so “yes” will be short. The bet becomes interesting only if the price drifts.
• Total rounds. In a five-round fight the main line sits at 4.5. Over is close to the same bet as “goes the distance”.
• Round betting. Long prices on a champion stoppage in rounds three to five, when wrestlers who have spent energy on takedowns tend to slow.
• In-play between rounds. If Evloev takes the first round on the mat, the price on the champion will lengthen. Our live betting guide explains the delay and the wider margins you pay for that option.

If either man pulls out and a replacement steps in, the original market is normally voided and a new one opens. The rest of the rules, including what a missed weight does to your bet, sit on our UFC betting hub.

Where to watch

The UFC 333 event page lists Paramount+ as the broadcaster for both the main card and the preliminaries. Viewers in other countries get the event through the promotion's national rights holders, which differ from one market to the next. A few of the betting sites we compare also stream some fights to account holders who are signed in. We chose sites that offer this, but which cards they carry is not the same everywhere, so look before fight night.

The lightweight picture, including the BMF fight on 12 December, is in our Charles Oliveira profile. At welterweight, see Sean Brady before his November main event.

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