Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes: Record, Style and Our Odds Estimate

Record

Of his 37 wins, 22 came by submission, 10 by knockout and only 5 on the cards. The 11 defeats split into 5 knockouts, 4 submissions and 2 decisions. Below are his twelve most recent results.

He held the UFC lightweight championship from 2021 into 2022 with one successful defence. Inside the promotion he owns four records listed on Wikipedia: most submission wins (17), most finishes (21), most Performance of the Night awards (14) and most post-fight bonuses overall (21).

What is known about Charles Oliveira

Wikipedia sums up his game as high-pressure Muay Thai striking blended with one of the most dangerous submission games the UFC has seen. He comes forward from the first bell with straight punches, elbows and knees, and the chokes tend to arrive in the scrambles that pressure creates: rear-naked chokes, guillotines, triangles and less orthodox entries. UFC.com files his style simply as jiu-jitsu.

His UFC.com statistics show where the danger sits:

• 2.59 submission attempts per fifteen minutes
• 2.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes
• 3.23 significant strikes landed per minute, at 56% accuracy
• 55% takedown defence

The weak point is the last line, and the knockout losses. Five of his eleven defeats were knockouts, the latest a first-round stoppage by Topuria in June 2025. He has since answered with two wins, the second a five-round decision over Holloway that showed he can still win a long fight on volume rather than finishes.

The opponent: Diego Lopes

Lopes was born on 30 December 1994, is Brazilian, fights out of Puebla in Mexico and holds a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He is 28–8, with 12 knockouts, 12 submissions and 4 decisions, and he is ranked No. 2 at featherweight. Both of his recent defeats came against Alexander Volkanovski over five rounds; in between he stopped Jean Silva in September 2025, and in June 2026 he knocked out Steve Garcia. UFC 335 is his first fight at 155 lb.

Charles Oliveira odds for UFC 335

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: Oliveira 56%, about 1.79 as a fair decimal price; Lopes 44%, about 2.27. Expect quoted prices on both sides to be shorter once the bookmaker's margin is added.

What drives our number:

1. Size and division experience. Oliveira has fought at lightweight for years with a 74-inch reach. Lopes is making his debut at the weight, and the first fight in a new division is often the hardest.
2. The chin question cuts the other way. Lopes has twelve knockouts, and Oliveira has been stopped five times. That is the main route to an upset, and it is why we stop well short of 60%.
3. Grappling against a grappler. Both men come from Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so the usual edge of a submission specialist is smaller here. Still, nobody in UFC history has finished more fights on the mat.
4. Five rounds. Oliveira just won a five-round decision; Lopes has lost two. Over 25 minutes, the man used to the weight should have more left late.

Our view: Oliveira by submission is the likeliest single outcome, with Lopes by knockout in the first two rounds the main danger to that.

Our fair prices by method

The same 56–44 split, broken down by how the fight could end. These are our estimates, not bookmaker prices, and the six lines add up to 100%.

Put together, that is a 70% chance the fight ends inside the distance, a fair 1.43. When you compare Charles Oliveira odds for the submission with our 3.33, remember that a quoted price already carries the margin, so it will usually look shorter than ours even when the two of us agree on the fight.

How to bet on Charles Oliveira: odds by market

With a fighter who has finished 32 of his 37 wins, the method markets usually say more than the winner market.

• To win. Convert Charles Oliveira odds with our odds calculator and compare it with our 56%. Anything that implies well under that has value on our numbers.
• Win by submission. The natural Oliveira bet, and normally the shortest of his method prices. It pays more than the moneyline because it excludes his decision and knockout wins.
• Fight does not go the distance. It covers a finish by either man, which fits two fighters with 24 and 32 finishes between them.
• Round of finish. Wins inside rounds one to three cover most of the likely submission routes; a Lopes knockout is a smaller, longer bet.
• Live, between rounds. If Lopes hurts him early, Charles Oliveira odds can drift far beyond what his record deserves. The live betting guide explains why the margin is wider in that window.

Late changes, missed weight and what voids a bet are covered on the UFC and MMA hub.

Where to watch

UFC 335 will reach viewers through the UFC's own broadcast partners, and who holds the rights depends on the country you watch from. On top of that, a handful of the betting sites we review stream selected fights to members who are logged in. We focused on sites that have this feature, though which events each one carries differs, so check the schedule on the day.

The featherweight champion who beat Lopes twice is profiled in our Alexander Volkanovski page, and the welterweight main event in November is covered in the Sean Brady profile.

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