Daniel Dubois: The WBO Heavyweight Champion Before the Wardley Rematch

Record: the wins and losses that set the price

Twenty-six fights, three defeats. The table keeps to the ones a bettor should know, newest first.

The only win that went to the scorecards was a ten-rounder against Kevin Johnson in October 2018. Everything else he has won, he has won early, and all three defeats came early too. For anyone betting on Daniel Dubois, that is the shape of the record in one sentence: a Dubois fight is rarely decided by judges.

What is known about Daniel Dubois

Power is the headline. Wikipedia's summary of his career puts it plainly: 22 of his 23 wins came by knockout. He is big for the division, with a 78-inch reach, and against Wardley he weighed a career-high 251.7 lb, nearly eight pounds more than in his previous fight.

His former trainer Shane McGuigan said before the first Wardley fight that Dubois had the tools to win it with the jab and a controlled pace, but doubted he would stick to that plan, and that a shootout favoured Wardley. The fight went roughly that way. Wardley put him down with an overhand right inside the first ten seconds, and again with the same punch in round three. Dubois recovered, won rounds two and four to six, and by the second half was landing the heavier punches. He landed 179 of 391 punches (46%) to Wardley's 97 of 358 (27%) before referee Howard Foster stopped it in round eleven.

The weaknesses are on the record as well. Joyce, Usyk twice and Wardley have all hurt him, and the overhand right found him early in Manchester. The strengths are the punch resistance he showed in getting up twice and the work rate he kept once the fight settled. Before the first fight he had gone back to trainer Don Charles.

Dubois vs Wardley 2: chances and why

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: Dubois 57%, a fair price of about 1.75; Wardley 41%, about 2.45; the draw 2%. Bookmaker prices carry a margin on top of that, so expect both quoted numbers to be shorter. The odds calculator shows what a quoted price implies and how much margin sits in the market.

Wardley comes in at 20–1–1, the one defeat being the first meeting. Why we lean to the champion:

• He has already solved this opponent once. After the early trouble, he won most of the middle rounds and outlanded Wardley by a wide margin over eleven.
• The damage was one-sided late. Wardley was checked by the ringside doctor twice before the stoppage, with injuries to his right eye and nose.
• Wardley wins late or not at all. Dubois himself pointed out before the first fight that Wardley's wins over Justis Huni and Joseph Parker came from behind on the cards through late stoppages. That pattern is less threatening to a man who is ahead and still punching.

Why the price is not shorter:

• The overhand right worked twice. Wardley has proof of the punch that drops Dubois, and a camp to build around it.
• Three losses, all inside the distance. Dubois can be stopped, and a rematch is where an opponent fixes the mistakes he named himself.

How to bet on Daniel Dubois

The full explanation of each market is on our boxing betting guide; here is how they apply to this fight.

1. Moneyline. The plain win, by any method. Check whether the site offers a two-way price, where a draw returns the stake or loses depending on the rules, or a three-way market with the draw listed separately.
2. Method of victory. Dubois by KO, TKO or disqualification, Dubois on points, and the same two for Wardley. With one decision win in 26 fights for Dubois and the first meeting ending in round eleven, our view is that the fight ends inside the distance about three times in four. The points prices are where the long numbers sit.
3. Round betting and grouped rounds. The first fight produced knockdowns in rounds one and three and a stoppage in round eleven. Grouped bands, such as rounds one to four or nine to twelve, carry less risk than naming one round.
4. Total rounds and distance or no distance. Wherever the line is set, remember that the first fight ran into round eleven while both men had been hurt early.
5. The draw. Rare at heavyweight between two punchers, and priced accordingly. It matters mostly for how a two-way moneyline settles.

Weigh-in numbers are worth checking on Friday. Dubois fought the first meeting at a career-high weight, and a change in either direction says something about the plan.

Where to watch

Heavyweight title fights are usually sold on pay-per-view or shown by the promoter's broadcast partners, and who holds the rights differs by country. Some betting sites also show boxing inside the account, usually smaller bouts and undercards rather than headline pay-per-view fights, and we picked sites where this exists. What each one carries changes from card to card, so check before the first bell.

The two pound-for-pound names in the same series are Naoya Inoue and David Benavidez, and for operators that pay out quickly there is our page on fast withdrawal betting sites.

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