Defiantly: The Irish Stayer at the Top of the Cup Market

Record

Career: 9 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third. At 3000m and further: 3 starts, 2 wins and a head second.

The Kergorlay field was small, five runners, with Santorini Star second and Double Major another five lengths back in third. His official rating went from 94 at Royal Ascot to 98 at Goodwood and 106 after Deauville.

What is known about Defiantly

The change came with distance and blinkers. Over a mile and a half to a mile and six furlongs he was a fair handicapper who lost more often than he won. Once he was stepped up to 3000m and more in June, with blinkers fitted, he ran a head second and then won twice. Those are the trips that matter at Flemington.

He races on the pace. O'Brien compared him with Twilight Payment, his 2020 Cup winner, saying both go to the lead and are hard to pass. His jockey at Deauville described a strong stayer who does little in a race, stays behind the bridle and keeps responding, adding that he handles fast ground.

He has form on both kinds of ground. His Goodwood and Ascot runs came on good to firm; the Kergorlay was on soft to heavy. Spring going at Flemington can be either.

What he has not done. He has not raced outside Europe, has not run in a field bigger than 20, and has not met Australian stayers at weights set by their handicapper. He was in pre-export quarantine at the end of September, with the travel still ahead of him.

Melbourne Cup 2026: chances and why

The Cup is a 3200m handicap for up to 24 runners. As of 5 October the races.com.au market showed him at around $9, ahead of the reigning winner Half Yours at $10 and Aeliana at $11.

Our estimate: about 10 per cent, a fair price near 9/1 ($10). This is our estimate, not a bookmaker price. It puts him at the head of our list, but barely above the market. Why:

1. The right trip. Two wins and a head second at 3000m or more, and the longest of those races was further than the Cup.
2. A workable weight. 56.5kg is two and a half kilograms below Half Yours and a kilogram and a half below Aeliana.
3. The trainer. Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice, including with Twilight Payment in 2020, so the trip from Ireland is a route his stable has made work.
4. Against him: a thin record in deep fields. One Group race win, in a five-runner race on heavy ground, is not the same as a Flemington Cup.
5. Against him: the trip south. Every international horse has to travel and recover. Some handle it; not all reproduce their European form.

Our view: he is a fair favourite rather than a value bet at $9. We would look at him again if the price drifts to double figures after the field is declared.

How to bet on Defiantly

• Win, now or later. Ante-post prices are taken before the final field on Saturday 31 October. His ballot-exempt status removes one risk, but a scratching for any other reason usually loses an ante-post stake. Check how a price turns into a percentage with the odds calculator.
• Each way. With a big field, the place part pays out far more often than the win part. Place terms differ between sites on the Cup, and the each-way calculator shows what each set of terms is worth.
• Leading-international markets. Some sites may offer a market on the best-placed overseas-trained runner. That is a narrower contest than the whole race, and Defiantly would be one of the shorter prices in it.
• Starting price. If you would rather wait for the parade, an SP bet follows the market to the off and is not hit by Rule 4.

Our guide to racing bet settlement explains Rule 4 and why the number of runners changes the place terms.

Where to watch

Flemington's Cup Day goes out live on national broadcasters in Australia, and racing channels with rights carry it abroad, including in Ireland, where he is trained. Some betting sites also show Australian racing to account holders. We list sites where that feature exists; which meetings are included changes from site to site, so check before the day.

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