Alex Pereira vs Sergei Pavlovich: record, heavyweight test and our price

Record

Of his 13 wins, eleven came by knockout and two on the cards. The four defeats are a rear-naked choke in his MMA debut in 2015, a knockout by Israel Adesanya, a decision to Magomed Ankalaev and the TKO by Gane. Below are his UFC fights.

Wikipedia credits him with the fewest bouts needed to become a two-division UFC champion, eleven, and the second-highest number of knockouts in UFC title fights, six. After regaining the light heavyweight title from Ankalaev he vacated it, and Procházka and Carlos Ulberg fought for it at UFC 327. Our Jiří Procházka profile covers the man he beat twice.

What is known about Alex Pereira

Wikipedia's account of his style is close to what bettors see. He stands composed, walks forward with deliberate pressure, chops the lead leg with low kicks and throws few strikes that are not meant to end the fight. The left hook is the weapon, often thrown as a counter when an opponent over-commits. His pace is not high, but his efficiency is.

UFC.com's statistics put numbers on it:

• 5.01 significant strikes landed per minute, at 61% accuracy
• 3.72 significant strikes absorbed per minute
• 0.75 knockdowns per fifteen minutes
• 80% takedown defence
• an average fight time of 10 minutes 42 seconds

For Alex Pereira odds, the weakness that matters is the one the Gane fight exposed. At heavyweight the other man is just as big, and Pereira's own frame does less of the work. He was stopped in round two, and afterwards he criticised referee Herb Dean for not stopping blows to the back of the head. Whatever view you take of that, the result stands, and it is the reason his price is not shorter. Our Ciryl Gane profile has that fight from the champion's side.

The opponent: Sergei Pavlovich

Pavlovich was born on 13 May 1992 in Russia, stands 6 ft 3 in and has an 84-inch reach, five inches more than Pereira. He is 21–3 with 16 knockouts and 5 decisions, and he holds the UFC record for the longest run of first-round knockout wins, six. That run ended in November 2023, when Tom Aspinall knocked him out in round one for the interim title, and a decision loss to Alexander Volkov followed in June 2024.

Since then he has won three in a row: decisions over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February 2025 and Waldo Cortes-Acosta in August 2025, then a knockout of Tallison Teixeira in May 2026. The UFC ranks him third at heavyweight.

UFC 335: chances and why

The fight was announced on 4 October as the co-main event at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, under Charles Oliveira's BMF title defence against Diego Lopes.

Our estimate, not a bookmaker price: Pereira 46%, about 2.17 as a fair decimal price; Pavlovich 54%, about 1.85.

1. Size. Pavlovich is a natural heavyweight with the longer reach. Pereira lost the only fight he has had against a man of that size.
2. Power on both sides. Eleven of Pereira's thirteen wins and sixteen of Pavlovich's twenty-one came by knockout. Neither needs many clean shots.
3. Five rounds. Pereira has won title fights in rounds four and five, against Rountree and Adesanya. If it goes long, the experience of championship rounds is on his side.
4. Pavlovich has changed. Two of his last three wins went to decision, which suggests a more patient fighter than the one who blitzed opponents in 2022 and 2023.
5. Age. Pereira is 39, five years older, and coming off a stoppage loss.

Our view: Pavlovich is a narrow favourite on our numbers, and fair Alex Pereira odds sit just above evens. Pereira by knockout after round two is the outcome we think the market is most likely to underprice.

How to bet on Alex Pereira

With two knockout artists, Alex Pereira odds on the winner tell you less than the method and round markets.

• To win. Our odds calculator turns a quoted price into a percentage to set against our 46%. Anything longer than about 2.17 has value on our numbers.
• Win by knockout. The natural Pereira bet. It pays more than the moneyline because it leaves out a decision, which accounts for only two of his wins.
• Fight does not go the distance. It covers a finish by either man. Pavlovich's recent decisions are the main argument against it.
• Round of finish. Rounds one and two suit a Pavlovich finish; rounds three to five suit Pereira. Splitting stakes across the two is a common approach.
• Live, between rounds. If Pereira survives an early storm, Alex Pereira odds will drift and that can be the moment to look. The live betting guide explains why margins widen in-play.

Weigh-in misses, late replacements and voided bets are covered on the UFC and MMA hub. The main event has its own page: Charles Oliveira's profile. If you still need an account, our list of sportsbooks with no verification at sign-up compares the ones we review.

Where to watch

UFC 335 is shown through the promotion's broadcast partners, which differ from one country to the next, so check the UFC's own listings for where you live.

Some of the betting sites we cover also stream selected fights to account holders who are signed in. We looked for sites with that option, but the cards each one carries vary, so check the schedule close to fight night rather than assuming the co-main will be there.

Bitcasino.ioSportsbook

US$2,500When ID can be asked

Open